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Roman Hrytsiuk. Request useless, that there are good together. THE HYBRID WAR. Article.

On the Polish Forum, December 2016.



Roman Hrytsiuk.
Request useless, that there are good together.
THE HYBRID WAR

 

 

THE HYBRID WAR changes the usual protection rules in the title of my speech laid intrigue and controversy. At first glance, everything is logical. Is the eastern border of NATO. Is the eastern border of the European Union and the democratic world. And the war between Ukraine and Russia. What you Europeans are not affected. War far. Very far. In the TV. A TV can always disable. And the same TV in another program says that the war there is not so aggressive, and sometimes civil. And representatives of major supranational bodies have expressed deep concern, then the problem disappears and news broadcaster to switch sports and fashion. Do not be fooled. Russian aggression in Ukraine - your war too. With the delay. Not with different scenarios, but simply with a delay. If defeated Ukraine, this war will come to you. Hybrid. With real victims. Warsaw and Krakow is not Donetsk and Lugansk. Today there. And tomorrow? You even can not imagine how easy it is done. First Alternative media image as your country oppressed, such as the Russian-speaking population. Or Orthodox - is not important. Then timid protests, demands additional powers, special rights and in the final - a provocation victims. All welcome to our club. You do not even notice when the hybrid warfare came to your house. For news about sports and fashion broadcast continuously, and nothing no signs of trouble. Tell me, which of Eastern Europe today there is no pro-Russian groups that the Kremlin could use? Where no Russian media, Russian business channel for pumping money and other instruments of influence? The hybrid war changes the usual rules. But the main purpose hybrid warfare does not change the rules, and the very border. And not necessarily on the map, not at all. The formal limit is meaningless and territory can not control the government and foreign forces. Indirectly - even without the fighting. Immediately - as a result of organized unrest followed informal occupation. This is a very important point - the first hybrid warfare does not create an alternate reality that no new borders, and alternative image. Formally, there is no war and no military aggression. There are internal conflicts, political struggle, crisis management and special cases of armed conflict. Aggression and the aggressor is not - are concerned about the neighbors and the freedom of speech, conscience and try to bring the bureaucracy under the rules of the real situation. Bureaucracy all trying to get out of situations of unusual standard methods without new solutions. It is too conservative and unwilling ally of aggressor with new creative tools. I do not want to tell you about the Ukrainian problem - you do not want. I'll tell you how and when these problems can be yours. The problems are far from you protect Ukraine. On your benefit and your benefit. While the Kremlin beating his head against the wall Ukrainian Defense, you'll be fine. World, Business, European values. But if Ukraine does not stand? Then the problem becomes yours. First of all, as millions of migrants from Ukraine, who strikes hole border, fleeing with their families from war. Millions fifteen or twenty in a position to be in Europe during the day, for a maximum of two private cars or on foot. Fences will not help if people fleeing from war. This means that hybrid warfare against your country is already underway. And then the border will aggressor. First of hybrid warfare, then this. I beg to support Ukraine with pity. I say your instinct of self-preservation. You do not want to see Russian tanks on the border? Help us stop them. Other options exist. You can not give burglars ten zloty - he wants all of your purse and jacket and shoes and ring. You can not give Ukraine the aggressor or part of it - he goes on. 
The main pillars on which stands hybrid warfare is the presence of the aggressor, frozen or potential conflicts in the territory of the victim, the aggressor actively recruit agents of influence of bureaucracy and indifference around. For examples not far to seek - they are very close. We can observe right now border movement of democratic and civilized world from the eastern border of Ukraine to the West. 
I will not go into the theory. Only the specifics. Moreover, this very bright and large-scale example of driving a hybrid war in Europe today concerns not only Ukraine but the whole of the EU. This push its limits today. And if not yet formal direct invasion violated, the hybrid war has involved almost all the EU countries. 
Hybrid warfare is waged by Russia. This is a fact and it is necessary to speak directly, bluntly. Now more that is directed against any threat. Russia is not a hybrid war against Ukraine and against the European Union and the United States. That is against the democratic world at large. It really is a conflict of worldviews, conflict scenario society. Russia lost the economic competition. 
We can use other methods - bribery, blackmail, terrorism, manipulating, inciting internal conflicts, the creation of a loyal group of local people in the EU, or migrants. Difference in religion, nationality, social status - fertile ground for speculation, recruitment and incitement of conflict. This is what we call today and hybrid war. For hybrid aggression always come Russian tanks. If the Kremlin does not smash his head on my homeland of Ukraine - wait for its guests. He can not stop just because the fall in oil prices can not develop normally in the world and competition. He only viable aggression. 
I dwell on this in detail because it is the most important question - who refers hybrid warfare. It is clear that Ukraine first, and Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland ... It concerns everyone. Even in the US elections in the Russian special services are trying to influence. It would seem that work continuously rising from its knees elections in Russia to superpower across the ocean? But in today's world, thousands of threads interwoven horizontal relations is inevitable - applies to all hybrid warfare. And hybrid threat of terrorism, cyber attacks, blackmail - is a threat to all. All States and international associations. 
Logic aggressor in this case is dictated by the desire to live "better than other countries." For in the eyes of its own citizens and potential allies look attractive. But for this it is not going to reform its economy, build democratic institutions, independent media and other necessary tools. Aggressor strives to lower others to their level or lower. Or get share of wealth in the form of donor assistance loans or create preferences for the global market. In exchange, for example, to stop the attacks. Or to stop supporting all sorts of radical parties in the country, which was the subject of a hybrid of aggression. And then he can win over. 

Objectives hybrid war

Aim of this war is the establishment of instability and threats to such an extent that the West has agreed to negotiate and make concessions. In large-scale concessions. Such a recognition of Russia's right to dictate the rules of life for countries in the Kremlin consider their sphere of influence. That actually allow Russia to take away the real independence in several countries. The next assignment should be the admission of Russia to the negotiating table on all important international issues of the status of equal or senior partner. And, of course, material support in the form of loans and other assistance in terms of falling prices for oil and gas. Instead, Russia promises to limit control over those territories, which the West will yield not go further. In fact, hybrid warfare is over. Kremlin may ease the pressure on negotiating partners, but the hand of the throat will not take. Otherwise there is no guarantee the preservation of the situation and there is no chance to make it develop in favorable circumstances. 
The experience of such operations since the Soviet times is huge. But Russia is making a serious step up from local operations to long-term project, combined into a single script. It's very simple for those who still remember the confrontation monster USSR and civilized countries there is nothing fundamentally new. 
In a healthy competition dictatorship, built on commodity economy is doomed to defeat countries with a market economy and a democratic form of government. Tested on numerous examples. This compromise is not. You can not build a market economy in the absence of free elections, fair courts and independent media. Choosing the dictatorship of Russia automatically loses economic competition. Because the war in any form for the sake of the regime - the inevitable ending. But the fight with such differences in economic potential is also obvious loss. So hybrid warfare. War meanness, deceit and strikes back. Threats and bribery, manipulation of information lies - nothing new Russian special services did not come up. But methods focus a little more. 

Methods of war

They can be divided only in theory - in practice they are always used in combination. It makes no sense to organize a picket and kill from behind activist if this picture does not unwind in the media. Since propaganda goes straight to the work of agents and vice versa. As a result, they are swinging on the situation and the exacerbation of existing conflicts in society. 
1. Advocacy. Creating a climate of instability through active use of all types of media and communications. Picture alternate reality. Where thugs and agents provocateurs opponent issued by demanding justice civilians. The forces of law and order turn into executioners. In place of all the obvious falsity of the picture - but it need not in place, and to the outside viewer. Issue armed aggression by civil or liberation struggle - the usual style, tracing paper which worked in the KGB. 
2. Creation of internal conflicts in the country through its agents of influence. You can also create conflicts of state, became the object of aggression from its neighbors. This will later carry out armed aggression with less resistance and under the guise of a peacekeeping mission. 
3. Terror. Support existing radical organizations or creating them from scratch. They have shed blood and create an atmosphere of fear, confusion and weaken government control. Terror can occur relatively whole society to create an atmosphere of fear and nervousness, and can be targeted to specific social, religious or national group - to use these facts as a basis for propaganda. On this basis, build a big conflict in the country that was the victim ahresiyi.Meta terror - intimidate you. Making accept any conditions aggressor in exchange for a cessation of attacks. This formal aggressors and terrorists are not connected. 
4. The economic pressure. This utility tool that allows you to make citizens poorer generate uncertainty in the future, someone left without work and thus exacerbate social tensions. Later these people enough to explain to blame their troubles not the aggressor, and short-sighted government of their country. Someone can be the opposite - create preferences, provide soft loans or cheap raw materials. And agents are ready to protest.

5. The political pressure and international isolation. Thus, the creation of such a negative image and even toxic in the management of the state - the object of attack, where it becomes an international pariah. Example - the scandal with the murder of Ukrainian journalist Georgiy Gongadze, which accused the leadership of Ukraine and directly to President Leonid Kuchma. After a tough Western reaction he actually had no choice - either focus on the Kremlin, or stay alone. Aggressor likes to become the only friend of the victim. Because it not only simplifies the implementation agents of influence at all levels, but also leaves the victim without potential allies. 
6. The main tool of modern hybrid warfare is to create footholds domestically aggressor-victim. That is the most important task is to find and forming a loyal group. Usually it is national, religious, territorial or political community, which for any reason can be countered general population. Their finance, adjust, oppose others through propaganda and provocation. Create a protest in their own country, but loyal to the aggressor group from scratch long and expensive, so usually use frozen or smoldering conflicts. 
Preference is given to national and religious - they can keep for a long time with the least expenditure of resources. And it is easier for them to build propaganda. A key challenge in creating such conflicts is to create a situation in which the blood spilled loyal members of the group or other fault of the government. The conflict, which udobryly blood sacrifices with proper information support can immediately cause a fire, and at least for a long time will glow. 
In this case, the aggressor should always wrap their actions in the wrapper struggle for peace and conflict resolution. Even if the conflict he artificially created. Here, the availability of tools of propaganda - that is controlled by the obedient media and civil society activists is a major factor. The whole world should not see aggression and internal conflict and the desire to help solve the case forward in peace. 

Resources of aggressor
Amenities hybrid war, unlike traditional fighting, the presence of a strong technologically advanced army is not a priority. Of course, the army needs as a factor of pressure and constant threat to the victim. But the key task performs intelligence, saboteurs recruited agents of influence and controlled the media. 
Thus the primary resource for driving a hybrid war is money that can provide the required advance aggressor positions in the media and among opinion leaders in civil society. Besides money and by agents of provocation and correct images in the media can get the support of a number of politicians that without the support of the aggressor would have no chance of getting a serious representation in the government. 

Ways to protect


The ideal way to protect against aggression hybrid is the lack of weaknesses. Internal contradictions, national and religious conflicts or slow the memory of them, politicians who are willing to speculate on issues that divide society - are the main risks. Weaknesses to be actively used for the aggressor possible aggravation of the situation and inciting conflict. Such conditions are most convenient for recruiting supporters agents form active groups for street actions or artists for the attacks. Thus, countries that could potentially be or already are hybrid objects of aggression, not a secret that the Kremlin's agents are almost all over Europe, primarily interested in is that of painful domestic issues to deal independently. 

Working defense against aggression hybrid may be a conventional wall. Diplomatic, border, financial, media and worldview. Aggressor, even potential, should be deprived of the slightest opportunity to finance political parties, NGOs, the media in your country. Any gap through which money can seep aggressor and its propaganda is a threat. 
The only protection system must be reciprocity. Aggressor must understand that the overall reaction Alliance and the EU will be hard and fast. Alliance of democracies must proceed simultaneously and continuously raise the price of aggression to the opponent. Raise as much to its own idea lost all meaning. To benefit is acquired aggressor were too small in scale compared with the financial and political losses. The hybrid war must be very expensive, which automatically brings only loss and isolation. Not allowed expensive for the state-aggressor and sentence for the political regime. 
Currently the EU and the US just pass a test trial when almost borders on their hybrid warfare was all preparation, deployment and moved to a hot conflict involving military aggression, which relied on local agents of influence. It is in this illustrative example can not only learn the history of hybrid warfare, its methods and development. And this conflict gives NATO and the European Union via Ukraine permanently discourage the aggressor any desire to lead any war. Any method. 
The main condition for the implementation of these actions is the only firm position and a real understanding of the scale of the threat. I recall then, what started, the object of attack is not Ukraine - it is just the first in the list. The object is the whole of Europe. To verify this by looking at what capabilities Kremlin invested and invested in its supporters in different countries. This is not charity - it's an investment. If we do not stop with the Kremlin in Ukraine - without us you'll stop it in Poland, in Lithuania - everywhere ... with millions of migrants around the neck and the enemy on the border ... 
Roman Hrytsiuk. 
2016.12.18 17-43



Создан 09 июн 2017